Prediction of Climate Change Effects on Siberian Crane (Grus leucogeranus) Habitat Suitability by Using Ensemble Modeling in Asia Wetlands

The Siberian Crane (Grus leucogeranus) is the third rarest and most endangered crane species in world. This study aimed at predicting effect of climate change on habitat suitability breeding range wintering Asia Wetlands by using ensemble modeling under future scenarios before year 2050. In this regard, we used 4 methods, Surface Range Envelop (SRE), Random Forest (RF), Classification Tree Analysis (CTA) Flexible Discriminant (FDA) to determine relationships between occurrence bioclimatic variables framework Biomod2 R software. results showed that AUC values were greater than 0.9 functioning all models was excellent. Temperature Seasonality Annual Mean Coldest Quarter had important role for respectively 105.64% 136.27% changes justified suitability. Under RCP2.6 RCP8.5 scenario range, it possible will cause a 100% loss suitable West Sibera, 25.28% Iran China can be planning conservation species.